Tag Archives: forecast

Waiting for the Fat Lady

The UK government has just announced that it isn’t going to make a decision on further relaxing Covid-19 restrictions for another two weeks, just as many people were, quite reasonably hoping that the fat lady was, if not in full song, at least warming up for her aria.

Flippancy aside, let’s be clear: delaying a decision like that is utter nonsense, at multiple levels: whether it’s driven by the use of lagging data, the continuing failure to adopt and use effective forecasting (ours or anyone else's), the pursuit of political dogma, or any combination of these, they're once again delaying decision making until it's too late.

Worse, they seem to be relying on the success of the vaccination program to try to pull a largely fictional rabbit out of their hat - the hat that comes with a large label saying, "Wishful Thinking". But now for the data and analysis… Continue reading Waiting for the Fat Lady